Glimmers of Hope?

Now that he’s got the puppy ensconced in the whitehouse, US President Barack Obama is walking the delicate tightrope of attempting to inspire confidence in the US economy while still warning of tough times ahead.

Yesterday, he announced that there was a “glimmer of hope” on the horizon for the American economy but warned that the nation was “by no means out of the woods just yet”.

In a 45-minute speech delivered yesterday at Georgetown University in Washington, Mr Obama said that his $787 billion (£529 billion) stimulus package, housing proposals, car industry bail-outs and bank capitalisation plan had started to “generate signs of economic progress” by saving jobs and beginning to free up the frozen credit market.

Rejecting criticism that he has been spending with “reckless abandon”, Mr Obama said: “History has shown repeatedly that when nations do not take early and aggressive action to get credit flowing again, they have crises that last years and years instead of months and months – years of low growth, years of low job creation, years of low investment, all of which cost these nations far more than a course of bold, upfront action.”

He also rebuked critics who said his refusal to nationalise banks was another example of Washington “coddling Wall Street”.

The President pointed to schools and police departments cancelling redundancies, clean energy companies and construction firms re-hiring workers and homeowners re-financing at lower interest rates.

However, he went on to temper the optimism by warning that more unemployment and home repossessions would come over the next 12 months.

US stocks were hit yesterday by an unexpected drop in retail sales, leading the Dow Jones industrial average down 137.63, or 1.7 per cent, to 7,920.18.

However, Goldman Sachs posted higher-than-expected first quarter profits, and pledged to raise $5 billion (£3.36 billion) to repay government bailout money.

Mr Obama said: “There is no doubt that times are still tough. By no means are we out of the woods just yet. But from where we stand, for the very first time, we are beginning to see glimmers of hope. And beyond that, way off in the distance, we can see a vision of America’s future that is far different than our troubled economic past.”

Invoking the Sermon on the Mount, comparing the American economic system to the parable of the man who built his house on a pile of sand, Mr Obama said: “It is that house upon the rock. Proud, sturdy, and unwavering in the face of the greatest storm.”

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, also also offered a “fundamentally optimistic” assessment yesterday, using a speech in Atlanta to highlight recent data on home sales and consumer spending as “tentative signs that the sharp decline in economic activity may be slowing.

He said: “A levelling out of economic activity is the first step toward recovery.”

Locally, views are still mixed as to whether the Australian economy is on the road to recovery or will experience tougher times ahead. Certainly we are beginning to see our own “glimmers of hope” in our own share market, however this is tempered by the spectre of increasing unemployment.

Perhaps one of the most positive news bites for the Australian economy is that China’s stimulus package of some $808 billion (Australian) appears to be delivering better than expected results.

Last month, China’s industrial output growth jumped 8.3 per cent, up from the 3.8 per cent rise of the first two months, as domestic demand continued to improve, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said.

He described the figures as “better than expected”, according to an interview published in the China Securities Journal.

But he warned that the international financial crisis “has not yet hit the bottom”.

Financial analysts in China, however, are increasingly confident that the country’s slowing economy has bottomed.

“We believe the trough of sequential growth is already behind us, and China is heading into the initial stage of a recovery in the first quarter of 2009,” said Goldman Sachs Guo Hua analysts Helen Qiao and Yu Song. “In our view, China has already come out of the long winter featuring the sharpest and most severe growth slowdown in the past 30 years.

“Green shoots of strong domestic credit expansion, together with higher-than-expected fixed asset investment (FAI) growth are signalling the arrival of a spring season with rising upside risks to domestic demand growth.”

While I have maintained that no one can accurately predict what will happen tomorrow, next week or next month, it appears, that just possibly, the market has finally bottomed and we might just be beginning to witness the seeds of recovery.

The downside is that these “glimmers of hope” may take months if not years to be reflected in a broader resurgence in the Australian economy.

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2 Responses

  1. Bottomed? The DJI is currently at 7920 after being at 6440. BHP is at $33.54 after a low of $20 while the Commonwealth Bank is at $36.26 after a low of $24.00.

    In simple terms BHP is 65% off its lows while the Commonwealth is 50% above.

    While it’s unlikely it’s ‘over’, some people have made a motza. Who said it wasn’t about timing?

  2. August!

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