Intrade echoes Obama optimism

Intrade’s latest Prediction Markets show some optimism for the U.S. economy but little hope for Detroit’s big 2 car dinosaurs:

Their markets not only indicate low probability of a depression, they also suggest there could a turn around by the end of 2009.

The news is not so good for Chrysler with “50.1% chance of a partnership agreement being successfully concluded by April 30th” with Fiat and 79.9% probability of bankruptcy.

Intrade markets hold out slightly more hope for General Motors with bankruptcy at 68.0%.

Barack Obama’s latest comments echo these results:

United States President Barack Obama says he is starting to see glimmers of hope for the US economy.

Mr Obama says the US economy is still under severe stress, with many Americans losing their jobs and their homes.

But he says there are glimmers of hope as his massive economic stimulus plan takes effect.
Obama sees ‘glimmers of hope’ for economy (ABC 11 April 2009)

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5 Responses

  1. Just a thought, but Obama is talking up fuel efficient cars big time. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/us-tries-to-boost-fuelefficient-auto-sales-20090331-9hsd.html

    To boost sales of companies such as General Motors and Chrysler which stand on the brink of bankruptcy, President Barack Obama on Monday backed an “ambitious” plan that would provide “generous” credit to buyers of new and environment friendly cars.

    But do the US actually currently produce any ‘environmentally friendly cars’?

    A bit the same as Australia’s own ‘dinosaurs’, GMH’s/Ford’s (can’t remember which, but maybe both) recent effort of a big petrol guzzler.

  2. Worth pointing out that ‘bankruptcy’ in the US has a different legal focus than that used in Australia. ‘Bankruptcy’ in Australia is designed to assist the creditors, but in the US its purpose is to assist the business.

    As for Obama’s comments and those of his advisers, they are clearly optimistic as they should be because part of the (economy) problem is a crisis of confidence. There’s no political mileage in being Chicken Little.

  3. I wonder if Intrade’s team of auguring minds told the US car giants that they have been making the wrong type of vehicle for the last 10 years or so. Large pickup trucks should have been consigned to the dustbin of history many years ago.

    It’s time (thanks Gough) for the yanks subjected their auto makers to a thoroughgoing change.

  4. It’s time (thanks Gough) for the yanks subjected their auto makers to a thoroughgoing change.

    All right Stephan!

    It’s time™ for the government to decide what cars we should be driving. What could possibly go wrong?

  5. Our answer to Ms Pelosi is the Bird of Paradox. Let’s hope she NEVER gets seconded to a design team.

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