Costello a better chance of Beating Rudd

Oh dear, in another kick in the guts for Malcolm Turnbull, a new newspoll conducted for The Australian has concluded that more voters say Peter Costello has a better chance of beating Kevin Rudd at the next election than Malcolm Turnbull.

A Newspoll taken for The Australian newspaper last week found 46 per cent of voters said Mr Costello had a better chance of defeating Mr Rudd, while 35 per cent believed Mr Turnbull had the best chance.

Mr Costello’s lead is similar to the lead he held over the opposition leader earlier this month when 45 per cent of voters said he was the best candidate to lead the Liberal Party.

At that poll 38 per cent of voters said Mr Turnbull was the best candidate.

Since that poll Mr Rudd has extended his lead over Mr Turnbull as preferred prime minister from 40 to 45 percentage points.

In the most recent poll Mr Costello outstripped Mr Turnbull in every category, even among Labor voters.

Among coalition voters, 54 per cent said Mr Costello was the best leader to beat Kevin Rudd and 36 per cent said Mr Turnbull was the best leader for the job.

However, Opposition Senate leader Nick Minchin has slammed the media’s preoccupation with opinion polls, describing it as “neurotic”.

“The commentaries fascination with them when we’re… not even half way through this government’s first term… is a bit neurotic,” Senator Minchin told ABC Television.

“Peter Costello is a great asset to our team and clearly contains a widespread level of support in the community and that’s great,” Senator Minchin said.

“(But) Peter Costello is not a candidate for the leadership.”

Mr Rudd led Mr Turnbull 65-20 as preferred prime minister in an earlier Newspoll.

Advertisements

46 Responses

  1. It’s not just the media, Minchin. We’re all waiting for the Glorious Ascendancy of The Great and Wonderful Smirk.

  2. It seems to me that The Australian is playing a very proactive role in trying to oust Talcum.

    I wonder who’s behind it all….?

  3. Reb my money’s on Milne. Although his agenda is to oust Rudd, and ousting Turnbull is just a small piece in his big plan.

  4. While I’ll give you the idea that Milne is playing a substantial part in the game (he has some major… let’s say “mahout”, for Costello as PM); I think it goes deeper than one journalist. The guy is, let’s face it, no longer that influential that he can tilt the paper to his little crusade.

    We all know “The Australian” is a right-leaning newspaper (cue Neil of Sydney’s vehement denial), so I believe it is the powerful “right leaning” lobby that is trying to turf Malcolm.

    Let’s face it, Malcolm is pretty left-leaning for a Liberal and, more than that, much more concerned about his job security than about “conservative reform”. If it looks like the Liberal might win the next election (and it’s way to early to tell); conservative hard-noses are going to want someone in who will push for their agenda (the most pressing of which is Industrial Reform). Turnbull would rather cut off his own nose than take that idea to the public, and so he must go. Costello is equally enamoured by himself, but at least he thinks he is justified in bringing the “WorkChoices” style reform to Australia whether we like it or not.

  5. I have no idea where “mahout” came from… the word was meant to be “mahogany”… damn, ruined puns just look lame.

  6. I agree Reb, somebody is certainly pulling a few strings.

    From http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/25/2525267.htm?section=justin

    That figure has risen one point from when the question was first put in the last poll.

    Ah ha..the narrowing and then forward to Victory!

  7. Interesting. The Australian commissioned a Newspoll of today’s date. The full thing is at: http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl The topics being:

    25/03/09:Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings + leader with best chance of defeating labor under Kevin Rudd at next Federal Election

    And yet The Australian chose to publish only the Turnbull versus Costello section. The rest includes 56/44 TTP and Rudd with a satisfaction rating of 63%.

    They have Rudd versus Turnbull and Costello versus Turnbull but missing is a survey re Rudd versus Costello. I wonder why?

  8. They have Rudd versus Turnbull and Costello versus Turnbull but missing is a survey re Rudd versus Costello. I wonder why?

    Astute observation there Min. Which makes me think there is an agenda at play (and being proactively propogated by The Australian) to bring about the demise of Talcum as soon as possible.

    This would give Tip the opportunity to become familiar to voters as Leader of the Opposition prior to the next election and to be quite a powerful opponent to Rudd in the election campaign.

    I agree with Ben’s comment that Malcolm is pretty left-leaning for a Liberal.

    While he’s a bit pompous, he doesn’t have the same seething contempt for every living breathing thing that say George Brandis or Tony Abbott have.

    Malcolm is also quite supportive of the Gay & Lesbian community which must rustle the feathers of the rusted-on Libs like Bill Heffernon.

  9. Costello is equally enamoured by himself, but at least he thinks he is justified in bringing the “WorkChoices” style reform to Australia whether we like it or not.

    Surely even Costello can’t sell WorkChoices, you could expect another shitstorm over it.

    Costello was largely silent on any controversial issues when the govt. was in power, which is why some of the public may think that the sulky layabout is just wonderful.

    All he had to do was lay in the hammock and pull a couple of levers to keep the good ship economy in check.

    Once the voters know that Costello is actually even more extreme than Howard on WorkChoices, I would expect he’s gone, so how will he present himself to the public? The great uniter who wanted to walk the bridge for Aboriginal Reconciliation, or the Hillsong Saviour – hallelujah he has come and greed is god again.

    Personally, i’ve come to believe that the man is an idiot, an immature, arrogant, self important – idiot.

  10. Reb, I did another check and Newspoll via their site (10th March) has the results of a 3 way tustle between Rudd, Turnbull and Costello re Better Prime Minister

    Results are: Rudd 54% – Turnbull 13% – Costello 24%

    I can’t argue with that description Kitty. And Turnbull is starting to sound not much better, the latest being his statement that Rudd was being welcomed with such enthusiasm by Obama was ‘just being polite’..reeked of sour grapes.

  11. Surely even Costello can’t sell WorkChoices, you could expect another shitstorm over it.

    Oh no – I don’t expect him to sell it to the Australian public anymore than they did before bringing in WorkChoices & the GST.

    I expect they’ll pound on about how they brought debt down, their economic management expertise, & how Labour caused, or at least exacerbated, the “Rudd Recession” (I’ll admit, the alliteration adds some punch for the uninformed). They’ll try to get in based on vague promises and an ill feeling against the current government (which they will do everything in their power to create, as all oppositions do with varying levels of success).

    Then when they’re in for six months, they’ll need some industrial reforms in order to accommodate the promises they made to the voters. Then they’ll work with big business as much as possible to cement the changes in as hard as possible. The problem (in their mind) with WorkChoices was that they didn’t get the time to make it an unremovable part of the economic fabric. They believe that, like the GST, given enough time – people will just take it for granted. And I fear, like the GST, the general populace is lazy enough & so focused on the short-term that they are right.

  12. “It seems to me that The Australian is playing a very proactive role in trying to oust Talcum.”

    Seems to me Murdoch media are just trying to get attention again…rolling out the old, tired BUZZARDS to pick at the carcass of another manufactured tussle of the TITANics…whilst trying like Medusa w/ a haircut to convince the public that Newspoll is worth believing in after its amazing predictive qualities of late…all part of the same package really. About rolling in the dosh & furiously attempting to pay the outstanding debt.

    As a QLDer I’m not a believer in corporate polls…
    🙂

    Tho I’ve had fun w/ them now & then.

    It doesn’t take a poll to tell me that the Liberal party is in big, long-term trouble…& that no leader will dig them out of the turd swamp they’ve made for themselves by not having the courage to oust Johnny boy at the beginning of 2006…or even earlier.

    At least Rudd & Gillard had the nouse and courage to GO FOR IT.

    Just like they are w/ trying to cushion us from the worst effects of Costello’s “economic tsunami”.

    Ever get the feeling that Barnaby Joyless has become the speaker for the dead?

    LNP…bwahahaha…corporate farmers, big big property owners, public service slice and dicers w/ private share ejaculation obsessions…and not a true Liberal or supporter of small farms & rural workers in sight.

    BTW, how did the Federal LIBERAL party get that title?…out of a pack of TOFFee it seems.

    My money is on Costello running for the corporate hills…he hasn’t got the macadamias to make a move on the Lord of Wentworth…Costello’s just another TOFFee Apple…a hard coating hiding a disappointingly inedible, soft, browned off and past the due date inside.

    N’

  13. Nasking – “At least Rudd & Gillard had the nouse and courage to GO FOR IT.”

    Facts are always useful in a discussion.

    As I recall, Rudd never challenged, and denied his intention to do so on many occasions.

    Beazley himself declared the leadership vacant, following an undermining campaign. It was a courageous move, and it was only in these circumstances that Rudd became a candidate.

    So exactly what was it that Rudd did, other than the usual political destabilising? The time honoured tactic used by the most ambitious?

  14. Macadamias? Methinks they are a bit big for what Costello has. Maybe Pine Nuts.

  15. Tom re: other than the usual political destabilising? The time honoured tactic used by the most ambitious?

    And so you would agree that Costello is destabilising the party.

  16. Min – “And so you would agree that Costello is destabilising the party.”

    Probably, it is the time honoured tactic.

    He is a distraction. But given that he is a couple of years younger than Turnbull, about the same age as Rudd, which is about the same age as Hawke when he first entered parliament, he may well think that he still has a career in front of him. This would be understandable

    But I’d actually be interested to know exactly how “Rudd & Gillard had the nouse and courage to GO FOR IT”

    This yet again seems to be at odds with the facts.

  17. Even if he might at some stage have been taken seriously, surely he is a joke by now. I guess the last laugh will be on the silly Liberals if they put him up as leader.

  18. Well, when Brendan put himself up for a ballot – did Costello step forward? I believe that Rudd/Gillard did actually do that.

  19. is a bit neurotic,” Senator Minchin told ABC Television

    Well, he should know about being all mixed up and all, being an IR crank of the highest order.

  20. Tom. Given Rudd’s rating as preferred PM I think that Costello would serve the party better by becoming a team member rather than destabilising from the outer.

  21. Joni – And when Latham resigned, did Rudd nominate? No. He waited until Beazley had been sufficiently destabilised.

    My objection is simply that the proposition that Rudd is courageous is ridiculous. He is no different from any other ambitious politician.

    To pretend he has some higher order qualities is naïve, stupid or stupidly blinkered. I think the comment I first referred to falls into the latter category.

    Min, you may be right, but politicians (without exception to my knowledge) put personal interests before everything else. Costello is unlikely to be an exception to this behaviour.

  22. It’s pretty-well universally acknowledged that Costello lacks courage, so why is ToM talking about Rudd’s courage? Rudd has not, to my way of thinking, showed himself to deeply lack courage. (You don’t become PM by being a chicken). So why the diversion, ToM?

  23. Tom. I can name one Liberal..Petro Georgiou. Sadly stepping down. What a waste of talent. I was hoping the Turnbull being on occasions small L might make use of Petro’s considerable experience. To me, Turnbull made a mistake in listening to ‘the powers’ rather than setting his own agenda.

  24. Caney – No diversion here.

    But I will admit that I have an inclination to try to highlight BS comments.

    To suggest that Rudd is a more courageous politician than others is crap. The facts just don’t support this contention.

    Additionally, I was annoyed a few days ago when some strange opinions were somehow attributed to me, these bore no resemblance to my own.

    As you’re aware, I’m entirely capable of talking myself into deep crap, without the others seeking to deliberately misrepresent my opinions.

    Min, Petro Georgiou was never capable of being a minister.

    He was a party functionary that used his position to win one of the safest seats in the country. He made some sympathetic comments on some social issues, and we should acknowledge that. But he lacked the talent and the sense of cabinet solidarity to be a minister.

  25. Tom. Petro was a novelty in the Liberal Party he had the b*lls to stand up to Howard hence his non-advance to cabinet status.

    Petro has been the Member for Kooyong since 1994 and you don’t become the elected member for 14 years except by being extremely competant and an excellent representative for your community..especially if you are Greek and representing Kooyong.

  26. To suggest that Rudd is a more courageous politician than others is crap

    I’m pretty sure the “suggestion” is that Rudd is more courageous than Costello. Given one does not become PM by running away from a fight, I would suggest the suggestion is right!

    No diversion here

    ToM, Costello hates unions maybe as much as you do. Is that why you’re keen to avoid criticising him, preferring to distract by talking about Rudd?

    “The enemy of my union enemy is my friend”. I feel that’s why you’re keen to talk about anyone but him.

  27. On 30 November 2006 Rudd met with Beazley and announced his intention to challenge for the leadership. On 1 December 2006 Beazley announced not only a leadership election but also that all frontbench positions within the Parliamentary Labor Party would be made vacant. Both sides claimed that they were in a winning position.
    (Wikipedia)

    Wheras…

    “Mr. Howard promised me a rose garden…boohoo…& all I got was a hammock boohoo” thinks Peter Costello:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1682824.htm

    N’

  28. Min, Petro Georgiou was self interested and ambitious to the extent that he got himself pre selected to the seat that had previously been held by Peacock and Menzies.

    I think seats like Kooyong (Liberal) or Wills (ALP) ought to be provided to those that a political party will build a future around.

    Caney, I questioned this –

    – Nasking – “At least Rudd & Gillard had the nouse and courage to GO FOR IT.”

    I asked exactly how did Rudd “GO FOR IT”?.

    I’ve only pointed out that he just used the time honoured destabilistion. Beazely exhibited the courage. I don’t equate Rudd’s actions with “courage”.

  29. asked exactly how did Rudd “GO FOR IT”?

    ToM, Rudd took on the biggest fight in Australian public life. He didn’t run away from the fight; in fact he stepped right into the thick of it and took on old Howard and the mean ‘n’ dirty Liberal Party. And he won! That’s the mark of a courageous victor.

    How many fights has your Costello run away from? There must be oddles.

  30. Ummm Tom seat ‘be provided’. Petro held the seat for over 14 years! You have to earn it, it shouldn’t ‘be provided’.

    And so to you it’s all about manipulating the politics and nothing about representing the constituents..which Petro obvious did well having been re-elected since 1994.

    Umm. ‘he got himself pre selected to the seat that had previously been held by Peacock and Menzies.’

    By gee..what a clever bloke, got himself pre selected all by himself…and not only but also, to a seat held by Peacock and Menzies. Ohhh the shame of it all, an also ran such as Petro in the Blue Blood seat of Kooyong.

    Hate to tell you, but Petro was Senior Advisor to Peacock.

  31. “Rudd took on the biggest fight in Australian public life. He didn’t run away from the fight; in fact he stepped right into the thick of it and took on old Howard and the mean ‘n’ dirty Liberal Party. And he won! That’s the mark of a courageous victor.”

    Well said Caney. Rudd went for it. And won. Costello got to write a book.

    N’

  32. N’

    No – that is incorrect. Costello got his father-in-law to write the book. And what a best seller it was.

  33. I told you what was going down in the opposition camp yesterday…oh, that’s right, I’m considered as an idiot!

    Now, where was that rock.

  34. Costello is achieving his goal quite nicely. That is to destabilise the bastardsa that wouldn’t support him for the leadership when Eyebrows Howard was in his death throws as a politician and certainly as a leader. It really serves them right for not having the balls to taks the party forward. Turdball is struggling badly, Barnaby the Leader of the Nats is not on the same page as the coalition, not even the Nationals, and I don’t think it’s Custard Costello’s intention to lead an opposition in disarray. They do have the numbers in the Senate with thier brewery loving, alco pop defending Feilding. The guy is a Liberal stooge and by voting for the opposition he will find it hard to sell that he is for “Family First”, he obviously doesn’t have a family. The problem with the power they are showing in the Senate, is that they are knocking things back just because they can. Rudd has a to of ammunition to hit the grubs with when he is asking the Australian people to give him a Senate mandate next time. I hope for everybodies sake that the Greens or someone responsible has the balalce of power. I would not like a repeat of the Howard legacy when the Libs had the numbers in both houses.

  35. It’s simple really, I’m entirely willing to describe politicians as cunning, manipulative, self serving… all good nouns for the most of the current crop.

    But Rudd is courageous? No, that’s a stupid description, particularly coming form someone that attributed some very odd (bordering on offensive) opinions to me, including support for Kennett. BS artists shouldn’t get overlooked. At least I’m not inclined to overlook them.

    Min, it’s not that I find Petro Georgiou particularly objectionable, it’s just that I see him as another self serving party hack that used his position to secure a safe seat. While he has worked out OK as a local member, he didn’t bring anything outstanding to the parliament, other than more experience in internal party politics. I think there was already plenty of that type of experience.

    Still I suppose “courageous” could be used to describe some of the political issues he took on, against the prevailing sentiment of his party. Above average I suppose, but I always consider the average politician to be a hopeless failure.

  36. Rudd is courageous? No, that’s a stupid description

    Alright. You want to say Rudd is not courageous. (Even though he put himself right into centre of the biggest and dirtiest fight in Australian politics… and won).

    For someone on a mission to expose BS statements, you could try a little closer to home.

    So anyway, if Rudd, the dirty-fight-winning PM is “not courageous”, I’d be fascinated to see how the heck you describe Costello, ToM. Remember him? The topic of discussion?

    Please don’t avoid an appraisal of HIS courage simply because he’s on the same anti-union page as your goodself.

  37. Everyone knows I’m a Costello admirer so, leaving that aside…or acknowledging it….there is no courage in suicide. A challenge from Costello would have been political suicide. He knows, and knew, he would never have succeeded in a challenge. The circumstances were different to those confronting Keating. The parties are different. Hawke’s days were numbered and Keating’s time on the back bench were always going to be limited. Much of Hawke’s remaining support centred around a loyalty of love. Voters loved Hawke, they never really loved Keating. But Hawke was back on the piss and losing energy and will. Howard, on the other hand, whatever you think of him, was able to sustain his energy and work ethic right throughout. It was the Liberal party itself, more than Costello, that didn’t have the courage to renew, and they are in part paying for that now. Another factor is that Costello isn’t particularly likeable. The Libs have this obsession with being popular. Funny thing is, in my lifetime thay have never had a successful and popular leader. Fraser was unpopular, Howard was unpopular. The more charismatic blokes fall by the wayside pretty quickly Hewson, Peacock, and soon Turnbull. Costello knows that even with the leadership handed to him on a plate, he didn’t have enough support in the party room to be an effective leader for long in opposition. He’s been smart this time, let Turnbull have a crack and inevitably fail, then secure unchallenged leadership when the alternatives have all fallen by the wayside. I’ve said this all along remember. No politician plays nice, Costello tried and it backfired. He will lead the Libs at the next election, if it’s an early one Rudd will win with a reduced margin. If it goes to term, the Costello led Coalition may well win. Workchoices won’t seem so bad, even if it’s an issue, with 8-10% unemployed, Rudd’s fault or not. At some point Rudd is going to have to collect back the money that’s just been spent, and his popularity will not be nearly so high when that occurs. My tip is that he’ll go early and hand off a pretty poisoned chalice to Gillard mid term 2, before heading off to be UN Secretary General.

  38. Caney, of course Costello is not courageous. Nor is Turnbull. Nor was Howard.

    Nor is Rudd or Gillard.

    Keating was a reforming and courageous treasurer, but lost his way a little as PM.

    I liked Hawke, but I’m not sure I’d describe him as courageous

    Fraser certainly wasn’t, he was sniveling and weak.

    Just to make sure I complete the appraisal of all.

  39. Howard, on the other hand, whatever you think of him, was able to sustain his energy and work ethic right throughout. It was the Liberal party itself, more than Costello, that didn’t have the courage to renew, and they are in part paying for that now.

    But, but, but James…

    Remember when Howard always used to say that he’d step down from the leadership if “it was in the best interests of the party,” and then when the party reached the conclusion that it would, and Dolly tapped the old codger on the shoulder, but he refused to go…?

    The Liberal party wanted to “renew” but Howard wouldn’t let them. So they all bowed to Howard’s ego and paid the ultimate price.

    Are you trying to say there’s a success story in there somewhere..?

  40. ToM, federal elections are, to put it crudely, a dirty shitfight. I can think of no contest in any other arena – whether it be business, showbusiness or world championship wrestling – that comes close in terms of the personal attacks, attacks on one’s family, the public spotlight on the players’ every utterance and personal and past foible

    Those contesting the prize of PMship know full well that shit will be thrown at them. They know that, even long after they win the PMship, shit will continue to be thrown at them the whole time.

    Tell me that cowardice is in the makeup of any PM or PM-aspirant, and I simply won’t buy it.

  41. Caney – “I can think of no contest in any other arena – whether it be business, showbusiness or world championship wrestling – that comes close in terms of the personal attacks, attacks on one’s family, the public spotlight on the players’ every utterance and personal and past foible”

    I think my description of politicians as “cunning, manipulative, self serving…” covers most of this, just add – “ruthlessly ambitious and habitually disloyal”, and we’ve got everything you describe above covered.

  42. Even their leaving themselves open to being described publicly as:

    cunning, manipulative, self serving … ruthlessly ambitious and habitually disloyal

    … must take some courage (+ a thick skin!)

  43. Reb @ 2.37, not certain what you’re getting at there. I was simply commenting on the politics. And, yes, Howard became in the end too enamoured with power.

  44. Sorry, Reb, I think I know what you’re getting at. The Libs were pretty well done by then, and only a bloodless coup would have had any hope of working.

  45. It’s okay James. I’m really not sure what point I was trying to make either.

  46. Yeah, that’s it James. The old codger said he would go if they wanted him to.

    They did.

    And he didn’t.

    And then it all ended in tears…

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: