Queensland election: thinking the unthinkable

Cross post from Labor View from Bayside:

I’ve been talking to some Queensland ferrets about the State election. Current call by one ALP outsider is a 4 seat majority to Labor. Feeling is that the South East, especially Brisbane won’t bring themselves to elect Springborg Premier. But will they remember that he’s really National Party despite the re-branding?

Haven’t seen a breakdown of the latest poll giving the LNP a 2% break but suspect the lead could be weighted towards the bush and regions. The old Beasley 1998 majority in the wrong seats syndrome.

After the WA debacle anything is possible. It seems that solid but boring government isn’t enough. The electorate are looking for blood. Factional pre-selection skulduggery and a lack of an articulated vision by Premier Anna Bligh apparently aren’t helping. Not to mention the elephant in the room – the economic crisis.

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18 Responses

  1. Could also be “never follow kids,animals or Peter Beattie”.

  2. I didn’t know Anna Bligh had a vision. How on earth can the Borg reverse the polls so quickly? On the eve of the calling for an election it was 55% ALP and 45% Lib-NP. Now we’re supposed to believe that the Borg has a 1% – 2% lead. Bulldust!

    Looking at the two wannabe leaders the losers will be Queenslanders.

  3. The LNP party

    they can’t even bear to say National/Liberal Party out aloud because it’s such a voter turn-off, so now it’s LNP and the damaged goods are brand new again.

  4. Anna Bligh is a capable woman.

    She just has a certain mining magnate and a media mogul & other “let business rip” types wanting to stomp on her.

    The view the general public gets is often distorted by the “Union-hating” aspect of the corporate media that generally has every monetary interest in slaying Anna Bligh & Labor. It’s their backdoor way to get Rudd & Co.

    I reckon it’s pretty dumb to throw out one of the few “capable women” leaders available on the eve of many new knidergartens for those families who can’t afford it during the economic downturn…and a relationship w/ PM Kevin Rudd that would finally bring QLD into the 21st Century…as is already happening w/ the schools here.

    But I’ve know QLDers to vote against their own interests plenty of times…which is why some refer to it as a “backwater”. Going by the staffrooms & classrooms I taught in during the Nat/Lib years I can see what they mean.

    N’

  5. “ALP outsider is a 4 seat majority to Labor”

    That call could have come only from an ‘outsider’ because the situation seems much more dire. Indeed, any supposed ‘majority’ at this point would evoke a distinct sigh of relief from an ‘insider’.

    Labor support outside the Brisbane metropolitan area appears to have collapsed. And it mightn’t hold up all that well in the metro also.

    It’s not so much that the Borg will win but Labor could lose even though its seat margin is huge.

    Imagine! Clive Palmer’s buying of the Nats might deliver him ownership of the State as well. And I thought the ‘white shoe brigade’ was confined to the dust bin of history.

    Talk about the Deep North!

  6. Is anyone seriously suggesting that the state governments are carrying the political opprobrium for the economic crisis? First I’d heard about it.

    State ALP governments, along with conservative ones, tend to get tired.

    My observation is that long term ALP governments become prisoner to various pressure groups, organised interests, and that’s not just unions.

    Reformist leaders become unable to control the various groups dealing with policy, bartering over preselection and policy. It is hardly the fault of Bligh, it’s just the political cycle.

  7. I think they’re gone. I’d put money on the LNP taking the state, actually I have so I can’t lose no matter what happens 😀

    A funny – make sure you watch 2 or 3 before you make up your mind

    http://www.oldjewstellingjokes.com/

  8. Tom of Melbourne, on March 10th, 2009 at 10:44 pm Said:

    “it’s just the political cycle.”

    Probably the case. Time for a change and all that. But here in Queensland the alternative isn’t the ‘liberals’. who by and large have a philosophical base, but the Nationals – agrarian socialists whose guiding, and perhaps only principle, is ‘pork’. And if in doubt just provide more.

    Perhaps, instead of the ‘Smart Start’ or ‘Queensland – Beautiful One Day, Perfect the Next’ we will have slogans such as ‘Queensland – The Place That Was’ OR ‘Where you can really experience the Past’ and it would be truthful.

  9. N5- I must admit that I had previously thought that the electorate always seemed to vote ALP at the state level and conservative federal.

    State ALP governments should be better at looking after hospitals, schools, roads etc. Most conservatives arent interested in services.

    From here Bligh seems-very capable. Though I’d prefer not to place too much importance on the capability of the leader.

    At risk of becoming a big noter, I did have cause to have some dealings with a couple of Qld ministers a couple of years ago. The level of capability was as ordinary as you would find anywhere.

    Depth of capability is the biggest problem.

    ps – attempted post from a palm pilot, please excuse any spelling mistakes.

  10. ‘Queensland – the Sunshine State (with NO daylight saving because it upsets the cattle, the kids, and the curtain dye)’.

  11. Tom of Melbourne, on March 10th, 2009 at 11:22 pm Said:

    “N5- I must admit that I had previously thought that the electorate always seemed to vote ALP at the state level and conservative federal”

    Yes Tom, one of the ‘myths’ that still has currency but not supported by the historical facts. As for:

    “From here Bligh seems-very capable.”

    She is! But hasn’t the political ‘nous’ at the personal or the broader level that Beattie had.

    “The level of capability was as ordinary as you would find anywhere.”

    Indeed! But ‘ordinariness’ applies to both sides of the political divide.

    Bligh is certainly not a dill and indeed she is much more intellectually capable than the Borg but in politics that counts for little.

    Legion, on March 10th, 2009 at 11:22 pm Said:

    “Queensland – the Sunshine State (with NO daylight saving because it upsets the cattle, the kids, and the curtain dye)’.”

    Oh Dear. It seems that you buy that stereotype or is it just a cheap shot? Lol. But the fact is your ‘slur’ is way, way too simple if you seriously want to understand the daylight saving issue. In fact it’s facile and simplistic.

  12. Really? I thought it beautifully captured Anna’s decision to reject a plebiscite because ‘regional’ support was ‘soft’, even for a ‘zonal’ system; which does seem to hold certain parallels for a certain election.

  13. I will be voting on March 21st for Anna because every time I see Mr Springborg on tele he does not seem to be able to quantify what his policies are going to achieve or where the money is coming from.

    He is also going to sack public servants and increase unemployment at a time when he should be conciliatory over those type of things.

    Also if he thnks reducing payroll tax will create jobs he is blind. It will simply mean more cash for the bosses, because as I have said before business only employs the number of staff required to do a job and provide at best a mediocre level of service, no more.

  14. He is also going to sack public servants and increase unemployment at a time when he should be conciliatory over those type of things.

    I always assumed that was code for re-politicising the PS by removing anyone likely to hamper or be critical of an LNP ascendancy. So sad, too bad, you’re sacked, just a casualty of the new efficiency drive and reorganisation of the PS.

  15. Caught one of Anna’s TV commercials, tonight. Someone should tell her she comes across ‘flat’ and seems tense, and to just tell the good bits about creating jobs, and not waste her valuable sales pitch time on pre-empting criticism of a deficit, which is like half campaigning for the opposition, especially as ‘I don’t care about a deficit’ is one possible message a viewer might take away from the spiel.

  16. “I will be voting on March 21st for Anna because every time I see Mr Springborg on tele he does not seem to be able to quantify what his policies are going to achieve or where the money is coming from.”

    shaneinqld, exactly my sentiments…lately he looks agro alot …seems somewhat unsure of his policies…& i’m not reassured by his outbursts against the government.

    He comes across to me like a “bully boy” pretending to be “nice, progressive guy”…got me thinking of the way the Nats gleefully knocked down that precious hotel in Brissie years back. A certain “pushy arrogance” behind too many of them.

    And the religious-based censorship policies from that lot will help kill & hamper small businesses at the wrong time.

    I’d prefer a Mike Ahern type Nat.
    More thoughtful…sincere…slightly older & more experienced.
    N’

  17. I’m afraid Anna is the best of a bad bunch.

    No political stars around at the moment and they usually come out of the woodwork when things get tough…maybe not tough enough yet!

    Why would anyone vote for a Cyborg! 😆

  18. Ya know TB…Springborg’s dislike of the public service…& the Libs natural aversion to Unions…and now their URGE to mine URANIUM…

    well, it got me thinkin’…

    personally…reluctantly… i’m comin’ round to the need for some uranium mining to supply the needs of over-populated states…like China for instance…

    but I can’t help thinkin’ of Karen Silkwood:

    Karen Gay Silkwood (February 19, 1946 – November 13, 1974) was an American labor union activist and chemical technician at the Kerr-McGee plant near Crescent, Oklahoma, United States. Silkwood’s job was making plutonium pellets for nuclear reactor fuel rods. She died under mysterious circumstances after investigating claims of irregularities and wrongdoing at the Kerr-McGee plant.
    (Wiki pedia)

    I think i’d trust Labor to do the right thing eventually, if at all…but i’m more than a wee bit worried about the Nats being controlled by the Libs on this uranium issue.

    ‘specially during this economic downturn where money is short…

    and perhaps shortcuts might be taken…for profit…

    and LIVES of good, decent hard working men & women.

    And the Silkwoods of this world might be silenced to keep a supposedly “good thing going”:

    keeps me up at night…that’s for sure.
    N’

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