Obama’s lead beyond the Bradley effect

A couple of US election sites which are worth a visit:

A hard look at reality, and what you should do is from Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium:

By the standards of Presidential elections since 1992, Barack Obama is far ahead. For most of this season he has been running about 50 EV ahead of where John Kerry ran at the same point in 2004, which ended in a near-tie. Currently the gap is even larger – it’s nearing Clinton v. Dole proportions. In the face of a down economy and abysmal approval ratings for the Bush Administration, a lead of this size by a Democrat is essentially insurmountable.

This is why John McCain’s tactics have become increasingly savage – it’s his last stand.

…In short, the wind is at Barack Obama’s back. I currently expect a final outcome of Obama 318-364 EV, McCain 174-220 EV.

He dismisses the Bradley effect, where polling overstates black candidates popularity, as no longer relevant. He claims that it only ever represented 2-3% anyway.

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll has Obama 49%,to McCain’s 43%. It’s daily telephone tracking poll:

The rolling telephone tracking poll, including a sample of 1,206 likely voters collected over the previous three 24-hour periods spanning four calendar days – approximately 400 per 24-hour period from Oct. 8-11, 2008 – shows Obama’s lead growing from the 3.8 percentage points he enjoyed yesterday.

Obama’s lead in the polls is now beyond the usual margins of error. A 2% Bradley effect would have him slightly in front of McCain. Even a surge on Wall Street like the one happening today in Australia is unlikely to save McCain’s campaign.

Time to have a bet on Barack and look for a bargain or two on the stock exchange?

Kevin Rennie
Original post at Labor View from Bayside

10 Responses

  1. This is good news.

  2. Hi Kevin Rennie,

    Congratulations on a nicely-written, clear piece which, to me as a fairly disengaged and bewildered observer of the American developments, cuts to the bone of the current situation and the likely outcome. Thanks for the insight. I agree with Probability: it’s encouraging!

  3. I have to thank Sam Wang at Princeton and the very rational team at Zogby for the clarity of their analysis and the dispassionate approach they adopt.

  4. At present we have the blame for the vitriol which includes death threats against Obama being laid at Palin’s feet. According to ‘the news’ McCain is trying to tone it down.

    That is, nothing to do with me says McCain, it’s all HER FAULT.

    Just me, but I smell a rat. Palin gets to mention the following words as an association with Obama: terrorist, Arab, Muslim, Not Like Us. And then McCain gets to act holier than thou.

  5. I suspect he’s genuine. He doesn’t sit well amongst the nest of vipers aka the G.O.P. He only became the nominee because he was the only one left standing, except for a Mormon which the evangelicals wouldn’t hack.

  6. Kevin,

    The polls seem to indicate that Obama will be the next potus but I sense that it will be closer than the polls predict.

    I believe the mud that sticks has not been thrown as yet and that we underestimate the underlying racism that will be demonstrated on election day.

    The next four years will be destabilising for the US as history repeats itself…yet again.

  7. It could be closer. I have an open mind at this stage. One debate to go, market turmoil still likely, 3 weeks of possible slip-ups on either side.

    Some believe that it will as close as 2000 with the result being decided by the overseas vote.

  8. “I suspect he’s genuine. He doesn’t sit well amongst the nest of vipers aka the G.O.P. He only became the nominee because he was the only one left standing, except for a Mormon which the evangelicals wouldn’t hack.” Kevin R

    I agree. Choreographed or not, it took balls for McCain to call time on the frothing hatred of his more fanatical RW supporters at that town hall meeting (yesterday I think). Having said that, to not have chided them was not an option as it could only be seen as endorsement of dangerous, divisive elements.
    I think McCain does have the interests of his country (maybe not the world as a whole though) at heart; win or lose.

    All of this makes his opportunistic selection of the unwholesomely superficial Palin as a running mate even more disappointing. IMHO it’s just more evidence that, like it or not, he must act at the behest of the racists & religious crackpot base of his party; against his better judgement I imagine.

  9. His choice of Palin was probably a grave mistake – the one she seems to be burying them in.

  10. Yep. I see a genuine distinction between “conservative” & “redneck”. To me, Palin blatantly panders to the latter.

    Conservative intellectuals (the real ones, the ones that actually give issues consideration rather than just barracking as if it’s a football match) must be dismayed. Palin is not a good look & doesn’t do their intellectual platform any justice IMHO.
    She’s gonna provide fantastic ammunition for derision by opponents of conservatism for a long time to come.

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