Markets, Mobs and Social Mayhem

Reb highlighted the following article this morning and history would suggest that the potential for the type of fallout that  goes far beyond the financial and economic realms:

Waleed Aly, a lecturer in politics at Monash University writes:

The most lasting fallout of the global financial crisis is unlikely to be economic. This is the nature of true financial disaster: in the long run it brings down ideas, recasts societies and redistributes power in a way that resonates far beyond its lifespan. One day, the markets will stabilise and even recover, but the political terrain will likely be altered irrevocably.

Some ideological consequences are relatively obvious. Many commentators have already written obituaries for the creed of zealous deregulation that has prevailed throughout the Western world and especially in America. Indeed, that the Australian Government faces pressure to guarantee bank deposits establishes emphatically that people still want their governments to protect them, and are simply not soothed by promises of “market correction”.

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Obama’s lead beyond the Bradley effect

A couple of US election sites which are worth a visit:

A hard look at reality, and what you should do is from Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium:

By the standards of Presidential elections since 1992, Barack Obama is far ahead. For most of this season he has been running about 50 EV ahead of where John Kerry ran at the same point in 2004, which ended in a near-tie. Currently the gap is even larger – it’s nearing Clinton v. Dole proportions. In the face of a down economy and abysmal approval ratings for the Bush Administration, a lead of this size by a Democrat is essentially insurmountable.

This is why John McCain’s tactics have become increasingly savage – it’s his last stand.

…In short, the wind is at Barack Obama’s back. I currently expect a final outcome of Obama 318-364 EV, McCain 174-220 EV.

He dismisses the Bradley effect, where polling overstates black candidates popularity, as no longer relevant. He claims that it only ever represented 2-3% anyway.

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll has Obama 49%,to McCain’s 43%. It’s daily telephone tracking poll:

The rolling telephone tracking poll, including a sample of 1,206 likely voters collected over the previous three 24-hour periods spanning four calendar days – approximately 400 per 24-hour period from Oct. 8-11, 2008 – shows Obama’s lead growing from the 3.8 percentage points he enjoyed yesterday.

Obama’s lead in the polls is now beyond the usual margins of error. A 2% Bradley effect would have him slightly in front of McCain. Even a surge on Wall Street like the one happening today in Australia is unlikely to save McCain’s campaign.

Time to have a bet on Barack and look for a bargain or two on the stock exchange?

Kevin Rennie
Original post at Labor View from Bayside

THE BIG LIE EXPOSED: Big banks ignored sub-prime troubles

This is such an important development, despite the fact that many of us being well aware of the major personal debt issues we face, I just had to post it without delay.  Why?  The old line ‘ our banks are fundamentally sound’ has once and for all been expose for what it is.  A LIE.

Sean Parnell, FOI editor of the AUSTRALIAN writes today:

AUSTRALIA’S big banks ignored the sub-prime crisis in the US and actively took greater risks in the home mortgage market to see off a challenge from rival lenders.

The banks not only relaxed their lending standards in recent years – ultimately luring many customers into financial distress – but held off tightening their terms of credit to build a better market position.

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Climate of niceness change

It seems that Turnbull is beginning to try and make a deliberate break from the Howard past. In a interview with the Courier-Mail he has said “What the former government failed to recognise was that Kyoto had become a sacramental issue. It had become a very symbolic issue”.

But I thought that policy by symbols was bad?